Latest news 10 May.

CNN reports that the death toll in Mogadishu has risen to 96 with heavy fighting and most of the victims “civilians caught in the crossfire.” The forces of the Islamic Courts (the enemies of the Counter-terrorism alliance) declared a cease-fire on their part on Tuesday, but fighting continued into today (Wednesday). Now the ‘alliance’ are claiming that the Islamic courts are ‘unreliable’ interlocutors and continued to fire despite their cease-fire offer.

In Bossasso,
north Eastern Somalia, a fire in the refugee camp there has left 5,000 people homeless again, with dozens missing including many children.

Now more than 120 people have died, mostly civilians (BBC)

“A report by a UN committee on Wednesday warned that an unnamed country is flouting the arms embargo on Somalia.”

12 May. Shabelle, who have a correspondent on the ground in Mogadishu are reporting 130 or 140 dead and continued shelling of shanties in northern Mogadishu.

BBC report 150 dead. Somalian ‘president’ Yusuf is now desperately calling for members of his own government to desist from fighting against the Islamic courts and their fighters in the capital. Many of those in the transitional government are or were warlords themselves.

US diplomat Jendayi Frazer (who deals with most African issues for the State department) gave a signal that the US are funding the counter-terrorism forces. American would help anyone who sought to “prevent Somalia becoming a safe haven for terrorists”.

The UN are reporting that “the Islamists now control 80% of the capital.” These ‘islamists’ are actually the locals, jurists, clerics, businessmen who live in Mogadishu. In the absence of a state structure since 1991, Islamic courts have sprung up to replace state courts. There is no evidence that they are spreading violence or are connected to Al-Qaeda but the US and this ‘counter-terror’ force are pushing that story pretty hard.

Shabelle reports hopeful and sad news. They say 167 people have died but they also see signs of decreasing tension and violence diminishing although “Militia of warlords and Islamic militiamen take positions in many places in the capital and there is fear that more clashes will happen.”

Also on the hopeful side, Shabbelle reports on an anti-war rally in central Somalia, in a town called Abudwaq. Apparently the rally was “organized by the association of mothers’ in the town, with people marched through the town chanting anti war slogans.” Good for them.

AllAfrica has an excellent article on the roots of this violence, which also talks about the Islamic courts. “The Islamic courts, say some residents, have recently gained support. “At least the courts don’t loot or steal from us and they have been able to arrest some criminals,” [Mogadishu resident] Muhubo said.”

SomaliNet reports that the counter-terror alliance has sealed off Mogadishu, raising fears of a brutal siege as the actual battle seems to have gone badly for them.

In New York, the UN have made noises about tightening the arms embargo on Somalia and, interestingly, prosecuting violators. The San Diego Tribune reports “The Security Council passed a resolution Wednesday urging all nations to adhere to the existing arms embargo in Somalia and asked U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan to re-establish a monitoring group to investigate violators and make recommendations on how to improve compliance.”

In a State Department press briefing last week, Sean McCormack was asked about this:

QUESTION: Is it something you are looking into, though, that maybe you broke an arms embargo?

MR. MCCORMACK: Certainly, if there are any questions that may arise from the UN or other international organizations, we’ll do our best to respond to those questions.

So perhaps the UN is thinking about pressing charges against the Bush administration for gun running into Somalia.

thnx for keeping us updated Sam

Asharq have a very interesting interview with one of the most prominent leaders of the so-called Islamists in Mogadishu, Sheikh Sharif Ahmad. Key points, no al-Qaeda elements, no mass Islamist forces, just the residents of Mogadishu rising up with their private arms against the invading counter-terrorism coalition.

Excerpts from ‘‘Somalia’s Tangled Web Becomes Contorted’‘ on PINR, for comparison. One thing I think this article has right, which you guys seem to be misconstruing, is that the ‘counter-terrorist’ forces are not a ‘new, little-known’ entity, they are a new umbrella of familiar forces that have controlled Mogadishu for over a decade but have not cooperated this far before. That probably doesn’t mean their solidarity would outlast the contest with Islamic Courts over power, but of the two contending forces the Islamists are the relative newcomers, although they are not outsiders and have been springing up since 1994 to fill the judicial void. The novelty of the Islamists’ independent power-structure in Somalia’s clan society is destabilizing at present, although it represents an alternative to continual clan competition for control of Mogadishu.

“The multitude of forces that make up the tangled and knotted web of politics in the stateless country of Somalia was pulled taut in mid-May as violent clashes broke out in the constitutional capital Mogadishu between militias associated with the Islamic Court Union (I.C.U.) and the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-terrorism (A.R.P.C.T.), an umbrella group of warlords and businessmen who have dominated the city since Somalia lost an effective central government in 1991.

During the week of May 7, intense street fighting between the militias resulted in an estimated 150 dead and more than 300 wounded — mostly civilians caught in the cross-fire. The outbreak of violence marked an escalation of the chaotic conflicts that have racked Somalia since its descent into statelessness, threatening tentative movements toward stabilization and national reconciliation. ..

Regional states — Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti — are organized in the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (I.G.A.D.), which has attempted to broker the formation of a central government in Somalia with some minor success. Nonetheless, despite a common interest in regional stability, Djibouti, Eritrea and Ethiopia have reportedly flouted a United Nations arms embargo, funneling weapons and materiel to various Somali factions in efforts to gain influence. Yemen, which lies across the Red Sea from Somalia, and Italy, the former colonial power with an interest in reconstruction contracts, have reportedly done the same. A U.N. report released on May 10 stated that an unnamed country was giving “clandestine” military support to the A.R.P.C.T., presumed by analysts to be the United States. ..

The latest attempt to overcome Somalia’s fragmentation and form a central government came on January 5, 2006 when two major faction leaders — Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed and Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan — signed the Aden Declaration in which they agreed to implement the plan for a Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) that had been formulated in Kenya in 2004, but had been blocked by a deadlock between the leaders on where to locate the country’s capital. Yusuf had insisted that Mogadishu was too unsafe to be the seat of government, whereas Hassan, who was allied with warlords in Mogadishu, had held out for the constitutional capital.

Yusuf, the president of the T.F.G., and Hassan, the speaker of its parliament, agreed to make Baidoa, a neutral town 240 kilometers (150 miles) southeast of Mogadishu, the temporary capital and based the government in an abandoned grain warehouse. With no reliable security forces of its own, scant budgetary resources and an unpaid legislature, the fledgling government was riven by divisions between its components, which had not reconciled with one another. PINR forecasted in a January 10 report that the T.F.G. would not gain the acceptance of the Mogadishu warlords, which has proven to be the case. [See: “Somalia’s Uncertain Future”]

As the T.F.G. struggled to organize itself, it was bypassed by two new players — the I.C.U. and the A.R.P.C.T. — both of which oppose the T.F.G. and confront each other in a struggle for control over Mogadishu that has drawn into it actors from outside the city.

The most important and complicating recent development in Somalia’s political situation is the rise of the I.C.U., which marks the emergence of Islamism as a major force that cuts across traditional social divisions and has polarized them to some extent, disrupted the tenuous and shifting balance of power, and challenged traditional modes of dispute resolution by transcending to some degree the clan structure.

The first Islamic court was formed in 1994, when the U.S. pulled out of a U.N. peacekeeping mission after losing 18 troops in a battle with the warlord Mohamed Farrah Aidid in Mogadishu. The disbanding of the mission left Mogadishu in the hands of contending warlords who were unable to bring order to the city. The influence of clan elders was insufficient to restore security and Muslim clerics began to move in to fill the gap.

Over the past 12 years, the number of Islamic courts in Mogadishu has grown to 11. Applying the principles of Shari’a law, the courts provide the basic service of dispute resolution and enforcement of order, and have extended their power by forming militias and establishing schools and clinics. They have found allies in businessmen who have suffered at the hands of competitors associated with the warlords and with some warlords who have been disadvantaged in the struggle for power. The courts have become increasingly popular with Mogadishu’s residents, not only because of their services, but also because they are perceived to be relatively honest and dedicated to the country, rather than to their own narrow advantage, and are not beholden to external powers.

The eruption of militant political Islamism outside and opposed to the T.F.G. and the Mogadishu warlords and rising over the clan structure provoked a fierce reaction among the warlords, whose vital interests were threatened. It also caused concern in Washington, which saw the danger that the courts might become the basis for a Taliban-like movement that would provide safe haven and sustenance to international Islamic revolutionaries.

The warlords’ reaction to the I.C.U. crystallized on February 18, 2006 when some of them formed the A.R.P.C.T. and moved to roll back their opponents under the banner of the war on terrorism. During February and March, brief violent clashes broke out between the antagonists, resulting in 85 deaths and setting the stage for the current civil conflict.

Regional analysts are convinced that the A.R.P.C.T.‘s “counter-terrorism” ideology is an opportunistic attempt to gain support from Washington, a tactic they agree has borne fruit. A flurry of reports place former C.I.A. Director Porter Goss in Kenya in February negotiating with the A.R.P.C.T. for support in hunting down al-Qaeda figures in return for funds to finance the warlords’ military build-up. The deal was supposedly consummated with the Ethiopian secret service acting as the conduit for the money.

Faced with questions about its possible support for the A.R.P.C.T., which undermines the T.F.G., violates the U.N. arms embargo and changes the established U.S. policy of refraining from taking sides in Somalia’s domestic conflicts, Washington has refused to confirm or deny its involvement, stating that it supports the T.F.G. but is also working with “responsible” figures outside the transitional framework to suppress terrorism.

In reports drafted in 2005, PINR identified the strength of Islamism in Somalia and noted the rising power of the Islamic courts and the weakness of the T.F.G. The inability and unwillingness of the factions within Somalia to reconcile, and of external powers to support reconciliation consistently with incentives and sanctions, finally created a situation in which a movement for an alternative form of order has gained prominence, transforming the conflicts in Somalia from traditional power struggles rooted in economic and political interest to an incipient fight over the character of a future regime.

At present, Somalia is not faced with the immediate prospect of an Islamist takeover; the country’s politics are far too fragmented for that — the web is too segmented, dense, knotted and crisscrossed. Yet, the possibility that Islamism will become a dominant force in Somalia is now genuine and so is the possibility that Washington’s efforts to suppress it will subvert the T.F.G., ensuring that the country will continue in its stateless condition and that — as a consequence — the Islamists will gain more recruits.

The Battle for Mogadishu

[see full report for a detailed timeline of the fighting in Mogadishu]

The intensely mixed situation was further complicated on May 20 and 21, as reports that the I.C.U. and A.R.P.C.T. were massing their militias north of Mogadishu caused residents of the core neighborhoods to flee their homes. Yusuf announced to the transitional parliament that his negotiations with donor countries had yielded $310 million in commitments and that Washington had agreed to participate in efforts to settle the conflict in Mogadishu peacefully. The African Union (A.U.) added its voice to the calls for reconciliation and pledged its “full support” for the T.F.G.

The momentum of the T.F.G. was reversed when clan elders in Baidoa threatened to expel the T.F.G. from the town after complaining that their region was not adequately represented in the transitional institutions. Puntland suspended its participation in the transitional institutions over Gedi’s refusal to approve an oil-exploration deal with an Australian company that the mini-state had made independently.

Throughout the conflict, Ethiopia had pursued active diplomacy with the breakaway mini-states of Somaliland and Puntland on trade and military security, despite its formal support of the T.F.G. In a telling comment, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin said that Somalis and Ethiopians are the “same people” and that “we probably need to abolish the artificial borders in the future.” On May 21, Sudan inserted itself into the mix, announcing that it was sending an envoy to Mogadishu to mediate the conflict between the I.C.U. and A.R.P.C.T., hoping to bring the two sides into face-to-face negotiations.

May 22 brought the first sign that the current wave of conflict in Mogadishu was subsiding since the committee of clan elders that had imposed the cease-fire announced that the two sides had agreed to dismantle their blockades, although the militias had not yet stood down from their forward positions. In a 54-6 vote, the T.F.G.‘s cabinet approved for the first time the proposal for a peacekeeping mission to protect the government as it built its own security forces. The cabinet insisted that the states that would contribute to the mission be confined to Sudan and Uganda, reflecting fears of intervention by Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya, which are accused of taking sides in Somalia’s conflicts. The A.U. promptly endorsed the decision and authorized I.G.A.D. to prepare for the mission, pending ratification by the T.F.G.‘s parliament, which remains uncertain. ..

Look in the near term for persisting waves of tension between the I.C.U. and the A.R.P.C.T., as all the other foreign and domestic forces struggle to position themselves around the central confrontation. The complexity and uncertainty of the political situation ensures that most actors will try to hedge their bets, lowering the chances for conflict resolution. The political configuration of the web has changed and become more fraught, but the familiar tangles and knots remain.”

Report Drafted By:
Dr. Michael A. Weinstein

US support for Somali warlords may violate UN arms embargo

NAIROBI (AFP) – Covert United States support for an alliance of Somali warlords now fighting Islamic militias for control of Mogadishu may violate a 14-year-old
United Nations arms embargo, diplomats said.

As the two factions clashed for a fifth straight day on the streets of the capital, provoking international concern about rising violence, the diplomats said Washington’s backing of the warlord alliance was legally questionable.

The comments came a day after a panel of experts monitoring the 1992 arms embargo on Somalia told the UN Security Council it was investigating clandestine “financial support” to the alliance from an unnamed country.

Washington has not publicly confirmed its support for the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT) but US officials and informed Somali sources have told AFP the group has received US money.

The cash, amounting to several hundred thousand dollars, was delivered by former US military and intelligence officials on at least two occasions to Mogadishu warlords in January and February, sources in Somalia told AFP.

(. . . )

PINR argued that the Islamic militarization will defeat the 14th interim government and prolong civil war, but Somalia’s interim PM today congratulated the Islamic militia on winning the battle for Mogadishu. Will the interim government (which includes former warlords and is divided against itself by the clan loyalties of members) throw in with an Islamic transformation and help legitimize the courts’ political victory? This is from Reuters:

“Islamic militia vowed to turn Somalia into a religious state on Tuesday, pushing north to take more territory after winning a three-month battle for Mogadishu. But thousands of Mogadishu residents protested against the takeover and defeated warlords said they would fight back. Clan elders warned the Islamic side against more advances.

Fighters loyal to sharia courts seized the lawless capital on Monday from a self-styled anti-terrorism coalition of warlords widely believed to be backed by Washington. .. It was the first time the warlords had been dislodged from Mogadishu since ousting former ruler Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991.

“Until we get the Islamic state, we will continue with the Islamic struggle in Somalia,” Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, chairman of Mogadishu Islamic courts, told a rally of hundreds of people. “This is a long Islamic struggle and it will continue until the whole country comes under sharia law,” Fuad Ahmed, a militiaman loyal to the Islamic side, told Reuters. “We are ready to shed our blood in order for that struggle to succeed.”

Supporters of the warlord coalition packed the shattered Benadir stadium in the north of the capital in a counter rally to protest against the Islamic victory. “We have to continue fighting the terrorists in Mogadishu. We will remain in Mogadishu,” Warlord Bashir Raghe, who lost control of an airstrip and a port in March, told Reuters. “The Islamic courts cannot dislodge us from here.” ..

Somalia’s interim prime minister, Mohamed Ali Gedi, congratulated the Islamic side on their victory over warlords who many Somalis believe tried to undermine the government. “They were hurting reconciliation, stabilisation and pacification of Somalia,” Gedi told Radio France Internationale. “All those forces who joined their efforts together were the pillars of the victory and the government has congratulated them,” he said.

ISLAMIC SIDE PUSHES NORTH

The Islamic fighters advanced on Tuesday towards the warlord stronghold of Jowhar, about 90 km (56 miles) north of Mogadishu. “Our forces are in the village of Qalimoy, 20 km south of Jowhar. We are just waiting for orders from our leaders to capture it,” militia leader Siyad Mohamed, who is allied to the Islamic courts, told Reuters from Balad on the road to Jowhar.

Ali Nur, a warlord coalition militiaman, said clan elders had threatened to mass militia against the Islamic forces if they attacked Jowhar. Nur said the Islamic side told the warlords to hand over weapons but their fighters were preparing an assault to regain lost Mogadishu strongholds, notably the Kilometre Four area.

“We are preparing ourselves to repossess our territory. ... We have close to 100 technicals,” he said referring to pick-up trucks mounted with heavy guns.

But Kilometre Four resident Fahran Gure said checkpoints set up across Mogadishu had come down. “The coalition forces have moved closer to Kilometre Four but I don’t think they will clash with the Islamic courts militia because elders have intervened,” he said.

“We feel there is a big change, peace is in the air, no gunshots can be heard. It is calm, businesses are fully operational. People are now moving freely everywhere.”

.. The United States has refused to discuss persistent reports it is covertly funnelling $100,000 a month or more to the warlords but has said it will work with anyone combating terrorism.”

The UN is now inviting the Islamic coalition to enter into talks with all parties, recognizing as Kenya does that Somalia’s best chance for peace is with an alliance between the Islamic courts and the transitional government.

“The takeover of Mogadishu this week by Islamic militias marks a major defeat for the administration of US President George W. Bush, which had secretly backed a coalition of warlords. .. However, some independent analysts believe the outcome could actually contribute to Somalia’s stabilisation and even make way for the transitional national government, based in Baidoa since it was formed in 2004.

Somalia has been without a central government since dictator, Mohammed Siad Barre, was deposed in 1991. Various parts of the country are ruled by warlords.

In Nairobi, meanwhile, the Kenyan Foreign Ministry has announced a total ban on Somalia warlords responsible for the latest vicious fighting in Mogadishu from entering Kenya, accusing them of undermining Nairobi’s peace efforts in Somalia. .. Kenyan officials say the ban covers the warlords, some of whom are serving ministers in the Somalia Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and their associates. .. The statement did not name the warlords or associates affected by the ban, but Kenyan authorities said it targeted members of the US-supported Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter- Terrorism (ARPCT) who were sacked by Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Ghedi last Sunday.”

Source: NAM news network, lost the link, sorry

EMPOWERING SOMALIA WARLORDS SHORTSIGHTED, SAYS ANNAN
UNITED NATIONS, June 16 (NNN-KUNA) — “In an indirect reference to the United States which has been reportedly supporting the warlords in Somalia, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Thursday that warlords, whether in Somalia or elsewhere, deserve no support.

“One should not arm them and it is shortsighted (policy) by empowering these people and you are making it much more difficult to stabilise the country,” Annan told a press conference. “One should find other means of bringing law and order. You cannot rely on lawless men to create law and order for the general public. They will work for their own interest. We have seen it in the past and they are not going to change overnight,” he added.

Asked whether it is a good thing that the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) has taken control and restored some calm in Somalia, or is it a matter of concern that it is a Taliban rerun and will become a haven for terrorists, Annan said the Somalis are “totally fed up” with the warlords who terrorised them for so long.

“I suspect most Somalis would say good riddance,” he said, wondering at the same time if the ICU “is able to bring about law and order, respect human rights and liberties of the individuals or will curb their rights.” He described the current situation there as “very fluid.”

“What is important is that we find a way of getting the Somalis to work together, to eliminate violence and begin to restore some order and I would urge them to work together, the ICU and the transitional government and the people,” he suggested. He said he has no evidence that it is or will be a Taliban rerun.

He said he did not feel sidelined by the contact group on Somalia — US, Sweden, Norway UK, Italy and Tanzania — who met outside the UN Thursday for the first time on a plan of action to see what to do next now that ICU is winning more and more ground.

In Cairo meanwhile, Arab league Secretary General Amr Moussa said on Thursday that the Ministerial Committee over Somalia will meet soon at League headquarters here to discuss the situation in Somalia.

At a press conference here, Moussa warned against the presence of foreign forces that aim at creating chaos in Somalia. He noted that the situation was critical and dangerous there.

He called on Arab countries to support the legally elected government in Somalia and not to support one faction against the other. Moussa also said there were parties that aim at spreading disorder and bloodshed in Somalia, and aim at wasting all local and international efforts to improve the situation there.”

— NNN-KUNA