U.S. Troops in Azerbaijan?

Whatever the outcome of Rumsfeld’s upcoming visit to Baku, the geopolitical battle between the United States and Russia in the South Caucasus and Azerbaijan’s struggle to accommodate both will continue to intensify. The main question is whether or not the Azerbaijani government will be able to balance the interests of both states effectively or will simply favor one power over the other. The second choice would involve some geopolitical risks and would have critical consequences for the future of Azerbaijan.

Reports of potential U.S. military bases in Azerbaijan have intensified in the wake of another expected visit to Baku by the U.S. Secretary of Defense. Donald H. Rumsfeld is expected to arrive in Baku sometime this month, but this information has not yet been confirmed. While in Azerbaijan, Rumsfeld would likely meet with local military officials and possibly President Ilham Aliev himself.

In recent months, a number of high-ranking U.S. political figures have visited Azerbaijan, including former secretary of state Madeline Albright, Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky, as well as various diplomats and congressional representatives. Dobriansky delivered a special invitation from U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister, Elmar Mammadyarov. Last week Mammadyarov flew to Washington and held talks with Secretary Rice.

The State Department’s increasing attention to Azerbaijan is not surprising, as the U.S. government has been actively trying to ensure that the November parliamentary elections will be free and fair. In addition, the Pentagon stepped up its contacts with the Azerbaijani Army after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.

But the growing U.S. presence in Azerbaijan has alarmed some officials in the Azerbaijani government. Their argument for caution is based…

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