Clearing smoke may trigger global warming rise

New research suggests that the reason why global warming has been slower than expected is because atmoshperic pollution is masking the effect. They predict that the temperature of the earth could warm by as much as 10°C by 2100 which would have a devastating effect on life on earth.

Global warming looks set to be much worse than previously forecast, according to new research. Ironically, the crucial evidence is how little warming there has been so far.

Three top climate researchers claim that the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere should have warmed the world more than they have. The reason they have not, they say, is that the warming is being masked by sun-blocking smoke, dust and other polluting particles put into the air by human activity.

But they warn that in future this protection will lessen due to controls on pollution. Their best guess is that, as the mask is removed, temperatures will warm by at least 6°C by 2100. That is substantially above the current predictions of 1.5 to 4.5°C.

“Such an enormous increase would be comparable to the temperature change from the previous ice age to the present,” says one of the researchers, Meinrat Andreae of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany. “It is so far outside the range covered by our experience and scientific understanding that we cannot with any confidence predict the consequences for the Earth.”

Cool estimate

The calculations assume a doubling of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere by…

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PerceptualChaos is a physics (photonics) student from the University of Auckland, Aotearoa (NZ). He is working towards eventually getting a PHD and doing R&D on renewable energy sources and technology as we approach the end of the fossil fuel era Learn...

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