The Logic of a Wider Mideast War

Despite Bush administration denials about planned attacks on Iran, there is a powerful and dangerous logic carrying the United States toward a wider war in the Middle East. There also is an accumulation of evidence that George W. Bush is putting in place the military and political infrastructure for escalating the Iraq War into a regional conflagration. Indeed, the momentum might already be too strong — and the preparations too advanced — to turn around.

White House press secretary Tony Snow dismisses expectations of war with Iran as an “urban legend” and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Peter Pace says that “from a military standpoint” there’s “no need to cross the Iranian border.” But there are still strong reasons to suspect the Iraq War may soon spill over to Iran and possibly Syria.

Indeed, absent some blinking of eyes in Tehran over its nuclear program or a chilling of feet in Tel Aviv and Washington over military options, the logic of a wider war seems compelling – and would fit with both recent evidence and motives of key protagonists.

Take, for instance, George W. Bush’s announcement that he is deploying Patriot anti-missile missiles to the region, reportedly to protect key U.S. military installations in Kuwait and Qatar. That wouldn’t make much sense if Bush wasn’t anticipating some reason for Iran to fire missiles at American bases.

The logic would be that the Patriots are meant to guard against a retaliatory strike from Iran, presumably after an attack by the United States or Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Bush’s decision to order two aircraft carrier strike groups into waters off Iran sends a similar message. It is a warning to…

Posted by ShiftShapers
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